The world got a little bit safer on Monday, when the International Atomic Energy Agency certified that Iran had begun to comply with a six-month interim agreement to freeze — and, in some cases, roll back — critical elements of its nuclear program.
The UN nuclear watchdog was able to verify that Iran has halted its production of highly enriched uranium, and began converting its stockpile into oxide, a substance that is not suitable for manufacturing nuclear bombs.
These are small, reversible steps. But they matter. Prior to this deal, some experts estimated that it would take Iran a little over a month to produce a nuclear weapon. After Iran implements this agreement, that so-called “breakout” time will increase to two or three months. When it comes to detecting — and responding to — such a military threat, the extra time is significant.
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Contrary to the complaints of critics, the Obama administration didn’t give away the store to get this deal. Iran will be given access, in phases, to about $4 billion of the roughly $100 billion in assets that have been frozen in bank accounts abroad. Sanctions on auto parts will be lifted, along with certain trade in gold. And the government will be allowed to pay tuition for Iranian students studying abroad. This sanctions relief shows good faith, but it is a far cry from the tens of billions of dollars that Iran needs to restore its crippled economy. For that reason, Iran still has plenty of incentive to hammer out a final agreement.
That will be the hardest part. The interim deal was full of low-hanging fruit that both sides easily agreed on. A long-term deal, meant to sketch out the contours of Iran’s nuclear program into the future, is fraught with contentious issues. US and Iranian officials even disagree about what “long term” means. Americans envision curbs on Iran’s program for three decades; Iranians envision a deal that lasts only 10 years.
Any comprehensive agreement to dismantle the architecture of sanctions on Iran must be in place for at least 20 years. Indeed, some curbs — such as the production of 20 percent enriched uranium — should be in place forever, as the Institute for Science and International Security argued in a recent paper. If Iran wants to assure the world its program is peaceful, then it should allow for a “breakout” time of six months or more. And it should allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to install cameras in its nuclear facilities.
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Iran might not agree to these conditions. But one thing is clear: A bill in the Senate that threatens new sanctions on Iran isn’t helping. It contains a number of poison pills could seriously complicate negotiations, including a mandate that Obama certify every 30 days that Iran hasn’t been involved in terrorism. Iranian negotiators have threatened to walk out of talks if new sanctions are passed, and hard-liners in Iran’s parliament drafted tit-for-tat legislation mandating that uranium be enriched to 60 percent. They may be bluffing. But why take the risk? If talks collapse because of a bill passed by Congress, US allies around the world are likely to drop their own Iran sanctions.
But as unhelpful as some members of Congress may have been, Obama should resist the urge to shut them out. If talks are successful, Obama will need Congress to give the agreement its blessing and remove sanctions. If talks fail, he will need lawmakers to help think through military options. Either way, Congress has a role to play and must be brought into the process.
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